Probably Random - Statistics for people who use numbers, not degrees
Statistics for people who use numbers, not degrees
How to Calculate a P-Value by Hand
When you finish, you will have a two-tailed p-value for a one-sample t-test, built from four numbers: the sample mean, the sample standard deviation, the...
Meera Krishnan • 5 min readRegression to the Mean, Explained With Real Numbers
Why does the sales rep who had a record month usually have an ordinary one right after? Most of the time the cause is regression to the mean: an unusually...
Meera Krishnan • 5 min readElection Win Probability Charts Aren't Vote Shares
When a forecast says Democrats have an 85 percent chance of winning the House, that is not a prediction that they will win 85 percent of anything. It is a...
Meera Krishnan • 6 min readWhy 2026 Midterm Forecasts Disagree So Much About Who Wins the House
Three forecasts of the same midterm elections are live this month and they look irreconcilable. A Cornell University model presented on September 3, 2026...
Meera Krishnan • 7 min readHow Publication Bias Kept a Fabricated Procrastination Study Famous for 24 Years
Publication bias is the tendency for a study to get published because of how its results turned out rather than how well it was done. Big, clean, surprising...
Meera Krishnan • 6 min readWhat a p-value actually tells you, and what it does not
Someone sends you a test readout: the new checkout flow beat the old one, p = 0.03. Here is what that number says. If the new flow were exactly as good as...
Sofia Bianchi • 6 min read