Probably Random - Statistics for people who use numbers, not degrees
Statistics for people who use numbers, not degrees
Regression to the Mean, Explained With Real Numbers
Why does the sales rep who had a record month usually have an ordinary one right after? Most of the time the cause is regression to the mean: an unusually...
Meera Krishnan • 5 min readElection Win Probability Charts Aren't Vote Shares
When a forecast says Democrats have an 85 percent chance of winning the House, that is not a prediction that they will win 85 percent of anything. It is a...
Meera Krishnan • 6 min readWhy 2026 Midterm Forecasts Disagree So Much About Who Wins the House
Three forecasts of the same midterm elections are live this month and they look irreconcilable. A Cornell University model presented on September 3, 2026...
Meera Krishnan • 7 min readHow Publication Bias Kept a Fabricated Procrastination Study Famous for 24 Years
Publication bias is the tendency for a study to get published because of how its results turned out rather than how well it was done. Big, clean, surprising...
Meera Krishnan • 6 min readWhat a p-value actually tells you, and what it does not
Someone sends you a test readout: the new checkout flow beat the old one, p = 0.03. Here is what that number says. If the new flow were exactly as good as...
Sofia Bianchi • 6 min read